New RAND report with many useful case studies

About the author(s):

Rogier Bartels

Rogier is a researcher at the Netherlands Defence Academy (NLDA) and works at the Dutch National Prosecutor’s Office. He holds LL.M-degrees from Utrecht University and the University of Nottingham. Before taking up his current positions, he was an associate legal officer in Chambers at the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia, and a legal adviser at the International Humanitarian Law Division of the Netherlands Red Cross.

Rogier is an adjunct-lecturer at the Hague University of Applied Sciences, where he teaches international humanitarian law, and he co-convenes the Hague Initiative for Law and Armed Conflict.

The RAND Corporation has published a new report: Paths to Victory: Lessons from Modern Insurgencies. The 275 page report is available for free online. Its 2010 predecessor, Victory Has a Thousand Fathers: Sources of Success in Counterinsurgency contained analyses of 30 insurgencies that started and ended between 1978 and 2008. The latest report updates the original study and expands the data set, adding 41 new cases and comparing a total of 71 insurgencies that begun and were completed worldwide, since the Second World War. For example, the ten most recent ones are:

Tajikistan, 1992–1997; Georgia/Abkhazia, 1992–1994; Nagorno-Karabakh, 1992–1994; Bosnia, 1992–1995; Burundi, 1993–2003;  Chechnya, 1994–1996; Afghanistan (Taliban), 1996–2001; Zaire (anti-Mobutu), 1996–1997; Kosovo, 1996–1999; Nepal, 1997–2006 ; Democratic Republic of the Congo (anti-Kabila), 1998–2003.

Whilst the case studies are relatively short, the report contains a lot of useful information for those researching conflicts involving armed groups.

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