About the author(s):
Nadwa Al-Dawsari has 20 years of experience in Yemen and the Middle East. She is a Fellow at the Center on Armed Groups, a Nonresident Scholar at the Middle East Institute (MEI), and non-resident fellow at the Irregular Warfare Initiative. Nadwa's research examines the intersection of local conflict dynamics, non-state armed groups, and broader geopolitical competition, focusing on how foreign policy, peace efforts, and aid shape conflict and security in the region.
In her previous roles, Nadwa served as a senior non-resident scholar at the Project on Middle East Democracy, conflict advisor to the World Food Program, a Yemen Country Director at the Center for Civilians in Conflict, the founding Director at Partners Yemen, a MENA advisor at Partners Global, and a Senior Program Manager at the National Democratic Institute.
“We will continue to escalate, undeterred by their aggression, for we are at war and in open-ended confrontation with them [America and Israel],” declared Houthi leader Abdulmalik Al-Houthi, wagging his finger in a warning gesture during a televised speech. His words came just one day after Israel launched intense airstrikes that inflicted significant damageon Yemeni seaports and energy infrastructure under Houthi control.
Since October 7, 2023, the Houthis, formally refer to themselves as Ansarullah, have launched over 400 missiles and UAVs at Israel. Since launching their Red Sea attacks in November 2023, the Houthis have targeted an estimated 111 merchant vessels with missile and drones, seized one vessel, and sank two, which also killed four sailors. These attacks have disrupted the $1 trillion annual maritime trade flowing through the Red Sea, a vital corridor for global commerce.
In response to the Houthi escalation, the United States established Operation Prosperity Guardian and the European Union´s Naval Force (EUNAVFOR) launched OPERATION ASPIDES to protect maritime shipping and counter Houthi aggression in the region. Since January 2024, the U.S. and U.K. have conducted hundreds of airstrikes, targeting Houthi weapons facilities and command centers. The Israelis have also carried out four rounds of airstrikes, mainly targeting infrastructure including Sanaa airport, Houthi controlled seaport and energy facilities. These measures, however, have failed to deter the Houthis, while also raising questions about their sustainability given the high costs and risks of further escalation.
This evolving crisis underscores the Houthis’ transformation into a regional threat, necessitating a deeper examination of their ideological roots, strategic ambitions, and the factors enabling their rise to prominence on the international stage.
The Houthis: From Local Insurgency to a Regional Player
The Houthis, Zaydi Shia movement originated in the remote mountains of Saada governorate in north Yemen. Once a localized insurgent group, the Houthis now threaten regional stability and international maritime security while projecting ambitions that extend far beyond Yemen. Their transformation underscores a combination of ideological fervour, calculated opportunism, regional dynamics, and international community’s missteps that have propelled their rise.
During the 1990s, the Houthis capitalised on Yemen’s deep-seated underdevelopment, leveraging widespread poverty, lack of education, and economic grievances to recruit followers. Their opposition to Saudi-backed Salafi expansion further consolidated their influence in Saada and other remote northern areas of the country where they positioned themselves as the defenders of Yemen’s Zaydi identity.
The Houthis engaged in six wars against the Yemeni government between 2004 and 2010. Abdulmalik Al-Houthi, the group’s current leader, assumed leadership after his brother, Hussein Al-Houthi, was killed in clashes with government forces in 2004.
In 2011, the Houthis joined the popular uprising that led to the resignation of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, gaining legitimacy among Yemeni civil society and political groups. However, rather than fully committing to the peaceful transition, they aligned with Saleh who still controlled most of the armed forces. With his support, they expanded militarily and captured territory, even as they participated in the National Dialogue.[1] Eventually, they seized the capital Sanaa in September 2014, thwarting the political transition process altogether and dragging the country into a civil war.
The Saudi-led coalition (SLC) intervention that started in March 2015 to reverse the Houthis’ coup failed. Over eight years of relentless SLC airstrikes, the Houthis not only survived but consolidated their power, capitalizing on the divisions among their rivals and their Gulf backers, as well as the missteps of the international community. Persistent Houthi missile and drone strikes targeting Saudi infrastructure eventually compelled the Saudis to revisit their intervention in Yemen leading to a truce in April 2022. They have also exploited the West’s aversion to conflict, which shaped the UN-led talks, using diplomacy as a tool to gain more concessions while evading accountability and continuing to expand their military influence.
The Houthis’ rise has been significantly bolstered by Iran’s support, which has included military training, weapons manufacturing technology, and expertise in political and information warfare. Iran’s asymmetric strategy has helped the Houthis to achieve military prominence while enabling Tehran to maintain plausible deniability. However, while Iran remains a critical enabler, the Houthis are not directly controlled by Tehran. They have developed their own regional ambitions, pursuing an agenda that aligns with but remains independent of the Islamic Republic’s broader objectives.
Ideological Foundations
The Houthis belong to the Jaroudi Zaydi sect of Shia Islam, whose central tenet is that the spiritual and political leader of Muslims should be a Hashemite or descendants of Prophet Mohammed. This belief, rooted in Zaydi traditions, has been shaped by the teachings of Badr al-Din Al-Houthi, the father of the movement’s founder and current leader. Along with other Zaydi scholars of Hashemite descent, Badr al-Din sought to revive the Imamate, a theocracy that restricted leadership to Hashemites and ruled northern Yemen for hundreds of years until overthrown in 1962.
The Houthis are also inspired by the Iranian Revolution and are part of Iran’s Axis of resistance, an alliance that helps them pursue a transnational agenda and extend influence beyond Yemen. Their adoption of anti-Western and anti-Israeli rhetoric mirrors that of Iran and its regional proxies. The Houthis’ slogan, “Death to America, Death to Israel, Curse the Jews, Victory to Islam,” reflects their alignment with Iran’s revolutionary ideals. Beyond rhetoric, they frame their actions, including attacks on Israel and shipping in the Red Sea, as part of a “Battle of the Promised Conquest and Holy Jihad,” emphasizing their messianic vision of Islamic government centered in Jerusalem.
Establishing an Authoritarian Theocracy at Home
Domestically, the Houthis are building a theocratic police state, where repression, militarization, and systemic control serve their broader ambitions. Abdulmalik Al-Houthi remains the unchallenged leader of the movement, operating from a secret location and relying on a close-knit circle of loyalists. His leadership is bolstered by a network of supervisors(Mushrifeen) embedded in government institutions, ensuring ideological conformity and suppressing dissent. This system, coupled with the notorious Security and Intelligence Apparatuses, has transformed Houthi-controlled areas into a theocratic police state characterized by repression, widespread human rights violations, intimidation, and systemic indoctrination, all of which are means to control the society.
The Houthis have also prioritized recruitment, growing their fighter base from an estimated 30,000 in 2015 to over 350,000 by 2024. They use education as a tool for influence, modifying school curricula to glorify jihad and nurture anti-Western sentiment. Summer camps serve as platforms for ideological training and military preparation, with over a million children participating in 2024 alone according to the group.
The parallel economy the Houthis developed over the past decades helped them sustain their military operations, relying on taxes, black-market oil sales, illicit trade, money laundering, and aid diversion. With Houthi controlled Sanaa remaining Yemen’s main economic hub, the group controls 70% of Yemen’s revenues and dominates sectors such as banks, telecommunication and aviation.
Expanding Influence in the region
The growing tensions in the region following the October 7th attack on Israel and the humanitarian toll from Israel’s war in Gaza have provided the Houthis with an opportunity to expand their influence beyond Yemen. By branding their Red Sea attacks as acts of solidarity with Gaza, they are positioning themselves as defenders of the Muslim nation and leveraging the crisis to bolster their domestic and regional stature. Over the past year, the Houthis have firmly established themselves as a key player within Iran’s Axis of Resistance, significantly deepening their coordination with Tehran and its regional allies since October 2023.
The Houthis have also sought to extend to destabilizing Saudi Arabia, including training dissidents and supporting the formation of a military council aimed at armed resistance to challenge Saudi authority. This deepening alignment positions the Houthis as a potential successor to Hezbollah, leveraging their strategic location, military expansion, and ideological alignment with Tehran to expand the Iranian revolution model in the region.
Beyond their role in the Axis of Resistance, the Houthis have forged alliances with some extremist groups and criminal networks to target Western interests. They reportedly maintain collaboration with Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and Islamic State in Yemen, sharing intelligence, conducting prisoner exchanges, and providing mutual safe havens. In 2024, US intelligence revealed that the Houthis agreed to supply AQAP with drones, rockets, and training, while AQAP discussed supporting Houthi maritime attacks. Additionally, the Houthis have reportedly partnered with Al-Shabaab and Somali pirates to disrupt Red Sea trade, supplying Al-Shabaab with weapons and collaborating in smuggling and illicit transfer of weapons.
These alliances enhance the Houthis’ operational reach, enabling them to destabilize the region and solidify their position while aligning with Iran’s broader geopolitical objectives. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has reportedly struck a deal with Saif al-Adl, al-Qaeda’s de facto leader residing in Iran since 2002, to develop a strategic partnership against the West and its allies, with Yemen chosen as a testing ground. This reflects Tehran’s ambition to use the Houthis not only as a regional proxy but also as a platform to integrate and amplify its broader network of non-state actors.
Aligning with Global Powers: The Houthis’ Strategic Partnerships with Russia and China
Russia is reportedly supporting the Houthis and Russian military advisors and intelligence officers are on the ground providing targeting data on maritime vessels. In July 2024, CNN reported that Russia was preparing to supply the Houthis with missiles and military equipment, though this plan was reportedly postponed due to U.S. and Saudi pressure. Iran has allegedly facilitated secret talks between Russia and the Houthis about transferring advanced Russian anti-ship missiles, such as the Yakhont supersonic cruise missile, which would significantly enhance Houthi maritime capabilities.
In April 2024, a Russian warship reportedly evacuated IRGC-Quds Force commander Abu Reza Shahla’i, a key Houthi ally who is also on the US wanted list, from Hodeidah seaport. Allegations also surfaced in October 2024 that Viktor Bout, known as Putin’s “Merchant of Death, ” is brokering small arms sales to the Houthis, with Yemeni arms dealer Fares Mana’a acting as the primary liaison.
Additionally, the Houthis are recruiting Yemeni mercenaries for Russia’s war in Ukraine offering promises of jobs, Russian citizenship, and financial incentives. This deepening collaboration enables Russia to divert Western resources and attention from Ukraine while expanding its influence in the Middle East. For Iran, this partnership enhances its Axis of Resistance by integrating Russia’s military expertise and geopolitical influence, further strengthening its capacity to undermine Western dominance. For the Houthis, Russia’s support offers critical resources and advanced capabilities to further their goals of targeting Western interests and expanding influence in the region.
The Houthis are also reportedly building ties with China through weapons-related technology transfers. Economically, China is buying 90% of Iran’s US-sanctioned oil, indirectly financing the Houthi operations in the Red Sea. In May 2023, the Houthis signed a memorandum of understanding with China’s Aton Oilfield Group to invest in petroleum exploration off the Yemen coast. The company later nullified the agreement, following warnings by Yemen’s Internationally Recognized Government.
Future Outlook
The Houthis’ evolution from a localized insurgency to a regional power underscores their adaptability, strategic foresight, and capacity to capitalize on shifting regional dynamics and shortcomings of Western diplomacy. Through transnational partnerships and illicit funding streams, they have defied international pressure, sustained their operations, and extended their influence beyond Yemen. Domestically, they built a police state and focused on recruitment which helped them tighten their control over the population, securing a steady pipeline of fighters.
Over the past six months, the Houthis have emerged as Tehran’s strongest ally, stepping in the void that was left by Hezbollah’s degradation and the collapse of the Assad regime. Despite being a non-state actor, the Houthis have established military, along with informal economic and political ties, with a number of external actors, demonstrating their ability to transcend traditional barriers and leverage geopolitical shifts to their advantage.
By aligning with global powers such as Russia and China and creating a network of proxies in the Horn of Africa, the Houthis are reinforcing their strategic position at the crossroads of global commerce. Combined with their development of asymmetric warfare capabilities, these present complex challenges for the West.
While the West remains largely focused on reactive measures and containment, the Houthis steadily advance toward their long-term strategic goals. Their growing ambition, resilience, and ideological foundation are increasingly positioning them as a new center of power in the region with the potential to become a new Islamic Republic in their own right.
[1] The National Dialogue Conference was held between March 18, 2013 and January 24,2014